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      Quakeprediction.com We use many methods to come up with our final forecast. Here are a few listed below;
    • Moon phases
    • Animal behaviour
    • Human behaviour
    • Micro earthquakes
    • Seismic gaps
    • Thermal temperature changes
    • Satellite earthquake clouds
    • ULF or Ultra Low Frequency sounds
    • Water temperature changes
    • Steam emissions
    • Magnetic field changes
    • Radon gas release
    • Well water changes
    • Animals can detect the P-wave or ultrasonic wave generated by a big underground explosion or the rupture of an earthquake, even if the waves are too small for humans' senses. These waves travel faster than the S-wave earthquake wave that most strongly shakes the ground and causes the most damage. When this happens, animals can detect the incoming earthquake wave, and start behaving agitatedly or nervously, the same way a human would behave if they heard a loud explosion right outside their house.
    • Some people believe that in this way animals sense the immediate onset of earthquakes. In support of this claim, instances are cited when people have witnessed flight of animals just before an earthquake disaster. In fact, according to the Chief conservator of forests for Tamilnadu, a few minutes before the killer tsunami waves generated by an underwater earthquake hit the Indian coastline in December 2004, a 500-strong herd of blackbucks rushed away from the coastal areas to the safety of a nearby hilltop. Since the beginning of recorded history, observations of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes have been recorded by people from almost all civilizations. The Chinese began a systematic study of this unusual animal behavior and in December 1974 predicted a major earthquake that did, in fact, occur in February 1975. But skeptics claim to debunk nearly all such observations. In fact, the 1975 prediction relied most heavily on a series of strong foreshocks. The animal behavior reports are often ambiguous and not consistently observed. There is little evidence for animals being able to sense impending earthquakes, although it is likely they can sense the initial, weaker P-waves before people. Seismometers remain much more sensitive than even the animals, however.
    • In folklore, some animals have had more reports of being able to predict quakes than others. Likely: Dogs, cats, chickens and other smaller animals. There have been reports with elephants, too. Unlikely: Goats, horses, cows, and larger animals.
    • Japan has a long tradition associating catfish with earthquake prediction. From this idea emerged a long university research programme concluding in 2004 in which it was proposed that the (established) high sensitivity of catfish to electric fields was involved in detecting fields of a few hertz because of piezoelectric effects on deeply buried quartz crystals. Actual monitoring of catfish and correlation with earthquakes gave results that are not promising.
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    • At Quakeprediction.com we have also found that animal behaviour is very important when working with earthquake prediction. This is not the only tool we use when making our forecasts, but it is a vital part of our earthquake forecasting model.
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    • Quakeprediction.com was officially opened online at 4:15pm - May 24th 2006, 100 years after the April 18th 1906 earthquake in San Francisco.


    Swedish researchers develop new method for better earthquake warnings

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  • What if scientists could accurately predict the next 19 major earthquakes that take place every year around the world?
  • Well, one team has developed a system of stress analysis in earthquake research which could be a breakthrough into predicting earthquakes earlier and more accurately.
  • Professor Ragnar Slunga of Uppsala University, Sweden, in charge of the project funded by the Swedish Defence Research Agency, told CORDIS News: 'To call it a breakthrough is an understatement. This new method is even better than I thought possible and turns earthquake research into something closer to weather forecasting than prediction.'
  • The system uses highly developed geophysical observations systems to estimate the complete stress tensor in a given area, before monitoring the changes in the magnitude of that stress and the impact on the cracks or fault lines in the earth's crust.
  • By rooting the method of analysis in physics, instead of statistics, the project team believes they can make more accurate predictions, even going so far as to suggest that the new model can predict quakes years before they occur.
  • Such confidence in their work did not come over night. It is the result of decades of research into earthquakes and especially the analysis of 250,000 micro-tremors in one of the most earthquake-prone places on the planet; Iceland.
  • 'What is crucial to whether the analysis is reliable is to what extent the small quakes are analysed,' said Prof Slunga. 'It is necessary to analyse very minor micro-tremors as well, especially if the method is to be used to warn people immediately before a coming earthquake, a few days or a few hours before the quake.'
  • If an accurate early warning system for earthquakes could be put in place, it could the spell the end of the huge loss of life experienced each time an earthquake hits highly populated areas such as Japan and California.
  • Category: Miscellaneous Data Source Provider: CORDIS News interview with Professor Ragnar Slunga Document Reference: Based on a CORDIS News interview with Professor Ragnar Slunga Programme or Service Acronym: MS-SE C Subject Index: Earth Sciences; Innovation, Technology Transfer RCN: 26965




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